- Bitcoin’s recovery in 2020 mirrors the recovery experienced by the cryptocurrency in 2013
- The market in 2013, with only one major exchange, is different than the market in 2020
- The price prediction of $75,000 is the largest Bitcoin price forecast for 2020
Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to hit $75,000 within weeks and if it happens, it will single-handedly crash all price predictions, whether bullish or bearish for 2020.
According to Financial Analyst and Cane Island Alternative Advisor Timothy Peterson, BTC’s recovery in 2020 mirrors that experienced by the cryptocurrency in 2013. Peterson superimposed the charts from 2011, 2013, and 2017 with the 2013 chart separated into two because there were 2 major declines that year. In 2013, BTC peaked at around $1,127 and Petersen argued that a copycat move will give it a target price of $75,200.
Many pundits downplayed Petersen’s $75,000 prediction that is supposed to be “weeks away”. This is because the markets in 2013 and 2020 (the basis of his prediction) are very different. In 2013, 70% of all BTC exchange transactions were being conducted in Japan-based Mt. Gox. The exchange was accused of being the site of market manipulation that resulted in 2013’s BTC price peak of $1,127, ahead of Mt. Gox’s own implosion in 2014.
Peterson defended his prediction on Twitter, citing his body of work on the mathematics of BTC valuation.
Regarding price manipulation in 2013, Peterson said he took that to account and explained he cited the landmark paper on BTC price manipulation in nearly all his research. In his paper “Bitcoin Spreads Like a Virus”, he said the 2013 event is one such exception where BTC’s price deviated from the parabolic trend.
Petersen is certainly walking the talk because his firm, Cane Island Alternative, now holds gold, BTC, Ethereum and other commodities like oil in its portfolio. He also said he is defunding USD in favor of BTC because of priorities.
Whether $75K is unlikely or not, it is still a bullish prediction celebrated by Twitter’s crypto community. It is the largest positive price prediction for BTC for 2020, beating the forecast of Bloomberg that put a price target of $20,000 by year-end. The bear scenario remains, with one analyst looking at a possible drop to $2,000 before a proper bull run in 2022.