Bitcoin is at a make or break level
Above: Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Daily Chart
Bitcoin’s daily chart up above shows two ascending trend lines creating what is known as a Rising Wedge pattern. Out of all the chart neutral and bearish chart patterns that exist: rectangles, flags, pennants, symmetrical triangles, descending triangles, head and shoulders, and rising wedge (this is not all of the patterns, but you should get my point) – the Rising Wedge is by far the most bearish. The Rising Wedge also has one of the highest positive expectancy rates for becoming a profitable trade. However, on the rare event that a Rising Wedge fails to produce a collapse in prices, you often see massive, massive bull rallies. Bitcoin is currently at one of these make-or-break levels.
Look at #1 on the chart. The green line is the lower trendline of the Rising Wedge and it is the line bears want to see price drop below in order to short. Aggressive short traders short the immediate break or close below the trendline. Conservative short traders wait for something called the re-test. Re-tests of levels that were recently support or resistance are common. What conservative short traders wait for in a Rising Wedge is for price to break down below the lower trend line, then move back up again to see if bulls fail to move back into the Rising Wedge. If bulls fail to rally back into the Rising Wedge, then bears have what is called confirmation. The problem for bears on Bitcoin’s chart is this: this is the fifth day in a row of testing the lower trend line. And the oscillators below tell me that if bulls push Bitcoin back into the Rising Wedge, we’re likely to see one epic short squeeze occur.
The RSI (#2) is in a transition here. In a bull market, the RSI’s overbought levels are 80 and 90 while the oversold levels are 50 and 40. In a bear market the RSI overbought levels are 55 to 65 with the oversold levels at 20 and 30. The RSI is currently sitting at 58. The RSI’s prior swing low was almost right on 45, showing likely bullish support was found. The Composite Index has recently crossesed above both of its averages. The thing we want to see if you are bullish, the final nail the in bears coffin would be the %B (#3) line crossing above 0.8. But bulls need to be careful as well. Given that the RSI is currently at 58 at point when price action dropped below the Rising Wedge, we could see the RSI establish an upper overbought zone and transition into a short term corrective (bear) move. Confirmation of a short term bear market would be price action failing to move back into the Rising Wedge, the RSI remaining below 65, and if the %B faces stiff rejection when it tests the 0.8 level.